File:Projected changes in yields of selected crops with global warming.png

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English: This bar graph shows projected changes in yields of selected crops with global warming. Projected changes are shown for 1-4 °C of global warming, relative to late 20th century. Changes in yield are shown for African maize, Asian rice, Indian wheat, US maize, and US soybean. Summary of changes:
  • African maize: Declining yields at all temperatures, with reductions increasing with temperature.
  • Asian rice: Small increases in yield for 1-2 °C. Yields decrease at 3-4 °C
  • Indian wheat: Losses at all temperatures, with losses increasing with temperature.
  • US maize: Losses at all temperatures, with losses increasing with temperature.
  • US soybean: Gains at 1 °C; no change at 2 °C; and losses at 3-4 °C.

Data

Values are approximate and are taken from the US National Research Council (US NRC, 2011).[1] The first, second, third and fourth numbers are the projected changes in yields (%) for 1, 2, 3 and 4 °C of global warming, respectively.:

  • Africa maize: -14, -25, -37, -46
  • Asia rice: +3, +1, -3.5, -7.5
  • India wheat: -5, -23, -47, -68
  • US maize: -13, -27, -44, -60
  • US soybean: +6, 0, -14, -30

These data are also available as comma-separated values.

US NRC (2011)[1] drew on several studies. The graph does not show the "likely" ranges included in US NRC (2011).[1] The likely range means that there is a 67% chance of the projected change in yield being correct, based on expert judgement.[1] For 1 °C of warming, the likely range is roughly equal to plus or minus (±) 5-10% for all projected changes in yields.

  • For 2 °C: roughly ± 15-20% for all projected changes in yields.
  • For 3 °C: roughly ± 20% for all projected changes " ".
  • For 4 °C: roughly ± 30-35% for all projected changes " ".

These projections broadly show the probable changes in regional yields.[2] The projections do not include measures to adapt to global warming.[2] Actual changes in yields may vary according to local conditions.[2] There are numerous other uncertainties, including how local climate will change with global warming, and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) associated with different magnitudes of global warming.[2] There is also the possibility that yields will change if critical thresholds are crossed.[2] Many of the uncertainties could bias the projections towards underestimating reductions in crop yields.[2] However, adaptation practices could help to reduce losses in yields.[2] Adaptation will be more difficult for higher magnitudes of warming, and may be less effective in tropical regions.[2]

Notes

  1. ↑ a b c d Figure 5.1, p.161, in: Sec 5.1 FOOD PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND HUNGER, in: Ch 5: Impacts in the Next Few Decades and Coming Centuries, in US NRC 2011
  2. ↑ a b c d e f g h pp.160-162, Sec 5.1 FOOD PRODUCTION, PRICES, AND HUNGER, in: Ch 5: Impacts in the Next Few Decades and Coming Centuries, in US NRC 2011

References

  • US NRC (2011) Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia[1], Washington, D.C., USA: National Academies Press
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Comma-separated values

Data were exported from OpenOffice.org 3.4.1 Calc as comma-separated values (csv). The following options were used:

  • Character set: Western Europe 1252
  • Field delimiter: ,
  • Text delimiter: "
  • Quote all text cells: no
  • Save cell content as shown: yes
  • Fixed column width: no
,,,,,,
,,,Global warming relative to late 20th century,,,
,,1,2,3,4,
,Africa maize,-14,-25,-37,-46,
,Asia rice,3,1,-3.5,-7.5,
,India wheat,-5,-23,-47,-68,Change in yields (%)
,US maize,-13,-27,-44,-60,
,US soybean,6,0,-14,-30,

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