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维基百科，自由的百科全书
什叶派新月带，图中数字为什叶派信徒占该国人口的比例

什叶派新月带（英语：Shia Crescent或Shiite Crescent），又称什叶派之弧（Shia Arc）及什叶派走廊（Shia Corridor），是指中东地区一条大多数人皈依什叶派，或国内存在具影响力的什叶派少数民族的新月形地带。该地带有黎巴嫩、叙利亚、伊拉克、伊朗、阿塞拜疆、西阿富汗、也门和巴林，其中伊朗、巴林、伊拉克及阿塞拜疆的什叶派信徒占人口过半[1]。其内的教派除了十二伊玛目派之外，还包括伊斯玛仪派、阿拉维派、阿拉维派与阿列维派[2]。

随着伊朗近年来致力整合所有什叶派穆斯林，什叶派新月带已开始被用来代指受伊朗影响或控制的地区。另一方面，这术语亦显示什叶派在中东的政治影响力日益月滋[2]。

概述[编辑]

什叶派新月带这词由约旦国王阿卜杜拉二世在2004年11月接受NBC新闻主持克里斯·马修斯（英语：Chris Matthews）的访问时首创，担心伊朗会利用伊拉克的什叶派势力、其在该国的社会影响力以及与艾哈迈德·沙拉比和阿里·西斯塔尼的之间的关系，去干预2005年1月伊拉克国民议会选举的前期准备工作[3]。他指控伊朗官方鼓励其人民越境进入伊拉克参与投票，透过民意调查影响后续的选举结果，又在中间人的帮助下向失业的伊拉克提供慰问金等福利，企图借此建立亲伊朗的公众舆论。部分入境的伊朗人更受过伊斯兰革命卫队的训练，有为选举过后的伊拉克制造麻烦的可能性[4]。当时在逊尼派威胁，最后也真的杯葛选举的背景下，伊拉克有可能出现由什叶派主导的政府，并受同属一教派的伊朗影响。而共同的宗教会大力推进伊朗、伊拉克、由阿拉维派掌权的叙利亚和在黎巴嫩政治上有着举足轻重影响力的什叶派民兵组织真主党之间的潜在合作，后三者甚至可能成为伊朗在中东权力博弈中的代理人，从而改变两大伊斯兰教派的势力平衡[4]。

如果伊拉克由什叶派掌权，并且与伊朗具特殊关系的话，那么加上叙利亚和黎巴嫩真主党，我们就能看到一条新形成、势将动摇到海湾国家们，甚至整个（中东）地区的弧月形地带。
“
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约旦国王阿卜杜拉二世在2004年接受MSNBC采访[5]

The term has developed since to encompass other Shia areas of the Middle East. The nations where Shia Muslims form a dominant majority are Iran and Iraq. Shias also represent a large majority in Azerbaijan, however it is constitutionally a secular state.[6] Those who are actual practicing adherents are much lower,[7] which has led to them generally being excluded from the crescent.[8] Shia are also the majority of citizens in Bahrain, however the government is largely Sunni.[8] Large Shia minorities also exist in Lebanon, Kuwait, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and to a lesser extent, UAE. Excepting Lebanon, where the weak central government structure of Lebanon has allowed Hezbollah to become involved in the Syrian civil war,[9] these are not usually described as part of the crescent.

Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in a speech on June 5, 2005, on the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death, cited the "Shia Crescent" project as evidence of a policy of religious divisiveness.[10] In 29th International Islamic Unity Conference in Tehran on December 27, 2015, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called on Muslim countries to unite and strive to improve Islam’s public image, adding that "There is neither a Shiite nor a Sunni crescent. We have an Islamic moon. We, Muslims, are in a world where we must be united".[11] Noam Chomsky, an American university professor and linguist, in his book, Making the Future, Occupations, Interventions, Empire, and Sustainability, claims that most of the Middle East's energy reserves lie in the so-called "Shiite Crescent" Iran's influence in the Shiite Crescent challenges US efforts to control Middle East energy resources.[12] Washington's nightmare is for a Shiite coalition to take control of the world's most important oil reserves independently of the United States.[13]

In January 2016, a confidant of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman claimed that the Arab world was confronted "by a Shia full moon”, rather than just a Shia Crescent, as a result of the expanded activities of Iranian-backed Shia militias in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen.[14] In December 2017, Mohammad Ali Jafari, the chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), said that "Today, armed cells of resistance have been established in Islamic countries, and small networks of resistance have been created in other countries, and we will see their influence in the future.” According to him, large forces of volunteers have joined the "anti-terror" struggle in Syria.[15] Jafari had also previously talked about the regime's need to create a Shia Islamist bloc loyal to Iran.[16]

时任圣城军指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼在2014年概述了哈梅内伊如何利用伊朗官方撑腰的霍梅尼主义武装分子发动军事叛乱，推翻阿拉伯国家政府的战略，当解释到伊朗的目标是掌控“世界70%的石油”时，他表示：

“在伊朗领导之下的什叶派复兴创造了两极分化，也壮大了伊朗本身，而这已经过政治、安全和经济方面的考量……我们知道伊朗、伊拉克与沙地阿拉伯控制了世界上大部分的石油，（沙地）阿拉伯排在老大、两伊则分别屈居第二和第三，然后世界上大概70到80%的石油产自什叶派穆斯林的居住地。伊拉克的石油走廊在巴士拉至巴格达之间；科威特及（沙地）阿拉伯的油田集中在达曼和卡提夫等什叶派聚居地，对伊朗来说亦然。什叶派的政治领导力大大增强了伊朗的民族力量。”[17]

人口转变与什叶化[编辑]

In 2017 or later, Hussain Ibrahim Qutrib, an Associate Professor of Geomorphology at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, wrote an article about the demographic changes that have occurred in "Useful Syria" as a result of the Syrian Civil War.[18] Specifically, Qutrib defined "Useful Syria" similar to how Syrian President Bashar al-Assad defined this term in early 2016—as in, including the Syrian governorates of Damascus, Rif Dimashq, Homs, Hama, Latakia, and Tartus.[18] Qutrib pointed out that these six governorates contained 46% of Syria's total population at the end of 2011—as in, 9.8 million people out of a total Syrian population of almost 21.4 million people at that point in time.[18] Qutrib points out that, at the end of 2011, the demographics of "Useful Syria" were 69% Sunni, 21% Alawite (which is an offshoot of Shi'a Islam), 1% Shi'a, 1% Druze, 2% Ismaili, and 6% Christian.[18]

相比之下，“有用的叙利亚”内的人口到了2016年已从980万下降到760万，其人口结构在这五年间也发生了显著的变化：52%逊尼派、24%阿拉维派、13%什叶派、7%基督宗教、3%伊斯玛仪派和1%德鲁兹教，而最突出的主要变化在于从1%爆炸性增长至13%的什叶派穆斯林[18]。在2011年至2016件间，大马士革农村省和霍姆斯省的人口变化尤其明显，前者的逊尼派比例从87%雪崩式下降到54%，后者亦不惶多让，从64%一泻千里至21%[18]。格塔里布将此现象将之为“什叶化”（Shiization）[18]。

参见[编辑]

什叶派条目
地理条目

参考资料[编辑]

  1. ^ Mudhoon, Loay. Die Hisbollah in der arabischen Misstrauensfalle. Deutsche Welle. 2006-07-23 [2021-11-02] （德语）. 
  2. ^ 2.0 2.1 Muhammad Reza, Yusefi; Mohammadali, Rezaee Esfahani. Objectives of Islamic Awakening in Quran's Viewpoint. Islamic Revolution Research (Ministry of Science, Research and Technology of Iran). 2013, 10 (33) （波斯语）. 
  3. ^ Hardball with Chris Matthews:King Abdullah II of Jordan. NBC News. 7 December 2008. 
  4. ^ 4.0 4.1 Iraq, Jordan See Threat To Election From Iran. The Washington Post. 8 December 2004. 
  5. ^ Jordan’s Abdullah concerned Iraq may tilt toward Tehran. NBC News. 2004-12-09 [2024-06-09]. 
  6. ^ Religion (PDF). Administrative Department of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan: 2. 1992. 
  7. ^ Azerbaijan. CIA Factbook. 9 May 2023. 
  8. ^ 8.0 8.1 Emerging Shia "Crescent" of Power in the Core of the Middle East. Gulf/2000 Project. 2009. 
  9. ^ Analysis - Hezbollah's Syria victory risks wider Sunni-Shi'ite conflict. Reuters. 6 June 2013. 
  10. ^ بیانات در مراسم بیست و ششمین سالگرد رحلت امام خمینی (رحمه‌الله) [Statements of the Ceremony of the 26th Anniversary of the Death of Imam Khomeini (May Allah Have Mercy on Him)]. farsi.khamenei.ir. 2015-06-04 [2021-11-02] （波斯语）. 
  11. ^ Iran's Rouhani urges Muslim countries to unite. Euronews. December 27, 2015. 
  12. ^ Chomsky 2012，第84–86页
  13. ^ Chomsky 2012，第266页
  14. ^ Muhammad bin Salman gambles on intervention abroad and radical economic change at home. But forget about democracy. The Economist. 9 January 2016 [14 January 2016]. 
  15. ^ Iran: We have established 'resistance cells' across Middle East - Middle East. Israel National News. 
  16. ^ Kazemzadeh, Masoud. 5:The sources of the Middle East's crises and American grand strategy. Iran's Foreign Policy: Elite Factionalism, Ideology, the Nuclear Weapons Program, and the United States. 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017: Routledge. 2020: 75–77. ISBN 978-0-367-49545-9. 
  17. ^ Kazemzadeh, Masoud. 5:The sources of the Middle East's crises and American grand strategy. Iran's Foreign Policy: Elite Factionalism, Ideology, the Nuclear Weapons Program, and the United States. 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017: Routledge. 2020: 78. ISBN 978-0-367-49545-9. 
  18. ^ 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 Qutrib, Hussain Ibrahim. “Useful Syria” and Demographic Changes in Syria (pdf) (报告). Riyadh: King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. 2016 [2024-06-07]. 

书籍[编辑]

外部链接[编辑]

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